1/8/08

Tzvee's Anonymous Analyst Reports Why Huckabee Won in Iowa

Our anonymous analyst out there in Iowa has been hard at work delving into why Mr. Huckabee won the primary and Mssrs. Romney et. al. did not win it..... Here is his trenchant insight which we were happy to obtain.

Tzvee,

Huckabee won among Republicans in Iowa for several reasons:

(1) Fred Thompson, who early on had been endorsed by pro-life groups, campaigned like he didn't really care whether or not he wins the Republican nomination. His entry into the race was highly heralded and deeply disappointing to conservative "values voters" who then turned to Huckabee.

(2) Kansas Senator Sam Brownback (I think that is his name) dropped out of the race very early, and those who had supported him went for Huckabee.

Duncan Hunter from CA never really had a "presence" in this state, so "values voters" who might have gone for him also went for Huckabee.

(3) I don't think that the religion thing (Mormonism) was nearly as big a deal as the media makes it out to be. Numbers of people in the "evangelical" church that I pastor support Romney. In fact, several worked for him, being members of his paid staff! Besides, what people forget is that Iowa is NOT a Baptist state like Arkansas or South Carolina. It is a Methodist state, big-time. So, if there was a religious gravitation toward Huckabee, and it seems that there was, it wasn't anti-Mormon so much as it was pro-evangelical. One more proof of this. . . Bob Jones III (of the fundamentalist Bob Jones University in SC) openly endorses Romney. . .

(4) Early into the campaign, Huckabee received support and Romney received criticism from two talk show hosts on the big news station here in Des Moines (WHO radio). Check out this website for an explanation. . .

(5) Honestly, I think that Romney's good looks and super successful business ventures, worked against him. Crazy, I know. Down-to-earth, common, Iowa folk distrusted him. He came across as too polished to be believed, at least that's what I think. I've noticed that he is not wearing expensive suits as he campaigns in New Hampshire. Unfortunately for him, he didn't pack away his suits until the final two days of the Iowa campaign. Too late for him. Iowans like their politicians to campaign in sweaters and to work in suits. Strange, I know. Huckabee, on the other hand, is folksy, self-deprecating, and winsome. He felt more believable. Especially since he seems to have more of a populist message.

(6) Iowan Republicans do not trust politicians who come from Massachusetts. Romney was successful, evidently, in that state, and he no doubt had to make various compromises as all politicians do in order to get the job done. As a result, since he was the front-runner for so long, people dug up all kinds of Romney "flip-flops," and these made staunch conservatives uneasy with him. Huckabee soared in the end, so he was not the target of a sustained "flip-flop" investigation. However, Huckabee has plenty of his own, evidently, but they were not uncovered until too late for Romney.

(7) I think that "values voters" who voted for their favorite candidate tended to vote for Huckabee. I also think that those who voted for the candidate that they thought would best go up against Mrs. Clinton, Mr.

Obama, or Mr. Edwards voted for Romney or McCain. Thompson just didn't get the traction that people thought he would get. He entered the race too late.

--Your anonymous reporter in Iowa!

Thanks for checking in, anonymous. We were hoping that you would.

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